Morning Coffee: Bank hiring 100 bankers last year plans to cut 230 bankers soon. AI bots are getting their own emails

Remember last year? There may not have been many deals, but plenty of people thought there would be imminently, and to this end people were hiring. People like Andrew Bester, head of the wholesale bank at ING.

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Speaking to The Banker last August, Bester said he'd peered into the future and seen more income coming from capital markets and advisory activity, and that after forming a dedicated new capital markets and advisory unit, he was hiring 100 new bankers to help ING branch out beyond debt capital markets (DCM). 

Nearly a year later, Bester has had a change of heart. Bloomberg reports that ING now plans to eliminate 230 roles from across its investment bank, with a focus on cutting directors and managing directors from the front office. It has too many senior people. "Market circumstances" mean that doesn't need them all after all.

Which market circumstances are those? Maybe the 5% year-on-year fall in European M&A fees, or the 16% fall in European ECM. Ironically for ING, only European DCM - where it wasn't branching out -  has had rising revenues this year. Revenues in ING's wholesale bank were stable year-on-year in the first quarter, but pretax there profits fell nearly 13% by virtue of higher expenses reflecting inflationary pay rises and "investments in selective front office growth."

If ING thinks it has too many senior staff, will other banks reach the same conclusion? Deutsche Bank was famously top-heavy even before its recent managing director hiring spree. Jefferies, UBS and others have done some heavy MD hiring too. 

ING is not alone in feeling a change in the waters. Daiwa put a stop to its hiring plans with a hiring freeze last month. Rival Dutch bank ABN AMRO has had a hiring freeze since April. ING still wants juniors, though. It probably helps that they're cheap. 

Separately, something is occurring in the way banking AI enthusiasts think about AI. - It's no longer a collection of code but an employee. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that BNY Mellon has got "digital employees" with their own managers, logins, Soon they will also have their own emails. These digital employees work alongside human staff, coding and validating payments. There are plans for them to send messages on Teams. 

It's not just BNY. JPMorgan chief analytics officer Derek Waldron is also talking about "digital employees". The anthropomorphizing is wildest at AWS where Scott Mullins, who manages the financial services team, is talking about instructing and managing the new "folks". They are bots, Scott. 

Meanwhile...

TPG has also pulled back from hiring juniors for 2027 in the "on-cycle" private equity recruitment round. It follows Apollo and General Atlantic and comes after Jamie Dimon said he would fire any incoming JPMorgan analysts who've already signed up to private equity jobs. (Business Insider) 

William Blair has got a new European boss in the form of Stewart Licudi. He manages 125 investment bankers and is saying things like, “It’s about strategic, thoughtful hiring to get the right individuals who are a strong cultural fit to come in and help us continue to grow this business.” He wants to hire in technology, healthcare and business services. (Financial News) 

PWC is cutting the price of some of its consulting services because it can work more quickly with AI. (Bloomberg) 

Millennium, Third Point and Point72 all want to move into private credit. (Financial Times) 

Drew Guevara is back as global co-head of technology banking at Morgan Stanley. He was briefly a vice chairman at the bank instead. (Bloomberg)  

Henley & Partners says 16,500 millionaires will flee the U.K. in 2025 alone. That “staggering” exodus amounts to “the largest net outflow” from any country since Henley and the global wealth intelligence firm New World Wealth began tracking millionaire migration a decade ago. (WSJ) 

Ken Griffin paid $13.7m for a handwritten copy of the 13th amendment. (WSJ) 

Mark Harris had a private equity job offer with KKR. Then he was indicted on a rape charge. (NY Post) 

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